Poker Hint – Gamblers Fallacy Applies to Poker Hands

Posted by admin
Aug 27 2010

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Lots of Texas Holdem competitors have a “favorite hand” in the betting online. It could be a really memorable hand, like something that won a competition for them. Certainly, everyone’s favorite is pocket aces, but some have “personal attachments” to others.



As long as you continue to be objective about the hand, there is nothing wrong with this. The opposite is correct with holdem poker hands sometimes. Sometimes you get a solid hand, maybe A-K, several times throughout the course of a session and have lost with it every time you make an online bet. This could happen for days on end.

You don’t want to even look at A-K pretty soon. You start to feel as it there is no feasible way you may ever win with that hand. Statisticians will often tell you about a thing called a “gambler’s fallacy.” The gambler’s fallacy is to think that only because a flipped coin comes up heads 4 times back to back, that it will come up heads again.

The opposite is also sometimes incorrectly believed: since it came up heads 4 times, it will have to come up tails this time around. It could come up heads again, or it could come up tails again, but it has nothing to do with the earlier 4 flips.

The online holdem poker odds of it turning up heads or tails in the subsequent turn are precisely the same: 50%. Texas Holdem applies the same theory. Gaining defeat several times back to back with the same hand shouldn’t affect your decision to the play the hand in the future.

Keep in mind that each hand is a new start in Texas Holdem. The button is in a different place, there could be different competitors in the hand, and the flop will surely be different. A great Texas Holdem competitor will assess each hand independently, and determine independently of earlier hands if the current hand is worth a call, a raise, or should be folded.

A pocket pair that’s been beaten several times could become a champ for you the subsequent time played. If you determine to fold those pocket 10′s before the flop and see a 3rd 10 on the flop, you will almost surely be discouraged much more. This may have been avoided, and so may an unsatisfied disposition, if you conform to the concept in the “gamblers fallacy.” This is applicable only to above average online holdem poker hands. Expecting a 7-4 to win for you is not realistic, and will nearly certainly continue to be a loser for you.

Expertise will aid you to understand which hands are a lot better than average, but this should be a very effortless process. In short, play each hand separately, and don’t count on past experiences to make your judgment for you.


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